Early Mr Olympia 2026 predictions point toward another close Men’s Open contest led by reigning champion Derek Lunsford, former champion Hadi Choopan and 2025 third-place finisher Andrew Jacked.
The championship takes place in Las Vegas on September 26, but the qualification season remains open through August 30. That means the final lineup is not complete, and any prediction made now must leave room for new qualifiers, withdrawals and changes in contest condition.
This preview ranks the leading confirmed contenders using recent Olympia results, qualification status, competitive consistency and the strengths that normally matter in Men’s Open judging.
Early Mr Olympia 2026 predictions
Our current top five projection is:
- Derek Lunsford
- Hadi Choopan
- Andrew Jacked
- Martin Fitzwater
- Behrooz Tabani
This is an editorial forecast, not an official ranking. The order can change after the final competitor list, athlete check-ins and prejudging comparisons.
Leading Mr Olympia 2026 contenders
The official IFBB Pro League list included the following qualified athletes as of July 29, 2026:
| Athlete | Country |
| Sergey Danilov | Russia |
| Derek Lunsford | USA |
| Hadi Choopan | Iran |
| Chinedu Obiekea, known as Andrew Jacked | UAE |
| Michal Krizanek | Slovakia |
| Tonio Burton | USA |
| Martin Fitzwater | USA |
| Andrea Presti | Italy |
| Shaun Clarida | USA |
| Damian Kuffel | Poland |
| Mohamed Foda | UAE |
| Sasan Heirati | UK |
| Leandro Sencini Peres | Brazil |
| William Bonac | Netherlands |
| Quinton Eriya | Canada |
| Edward Kargbo | UAE |
| Jordan Hutchinson | USA |
| Behrooz Tabani Abarghani | Iran |
The list can grow until the qualification period closes. Always check the latest official roster before treating any projected lineup as final.
1. Derek Lunsford: the champion to beat
Lunsford enters the season as the defending Men’s Open champion after reclaiming the title in 2025. He has already demonstrated that he can recover from a defeat, make adjustments and return to the top.
His strongest advantages include:
- Elite back development
- Balanced muscularity
- Strong front and rear comparisons
- Olympia-winning experience
- The ability to peak for major contests
The central question is whether he can reproduce the combination of fullness, conditioning and presentation that earned him the 2025 title. Defending is different from chasing: every challenger has had a full year to study where the champion might be vulnerable.
For now, Lunsford remains the narrow favorite because he owns the title and has fewer obvious structural weaknesses than most of the lineup.
2. Hadi Choopan: conditioning keeps him in contention
Hadi Choopan won Mr. Olympia in 2022 and has remained near the top of the division. His greatest weapon is the dense, detailed conditioning he routinely brings to the stage.
Choopan is especially dangerous when:
- His muscle separation is fully visible
- His midsection remains controlled
- He matches larger athletes in fullness
- His posing presents his physique efficiently
In a close contest, Hadi’s hardness and consistency can expose athletes who arrive slightly off. The challenge is that judges compare the complete physique, not conditioning alone. He must balance sharpness with enough fullness to challenge Lunsford across every mandatory pose.
3. Andrew Jacked: the structure to change the order
Andrew Jacked competes under his given name, Chinedu Obiekea, on the official qualified-athlete list. His third-place finish in 2025 confirmed that he is no longer simply a future threat—he is already a title contender.
His strengths include:
- Exceptional height and structure
- Broad shoulders and a small waist
- Strong stage presence
- A silhouette that separates him from shorter competitors
- Continued improvement at major contests
The biggest variable is conditioning. If Andrew matches the sharpness of Lunsford and Choopan while retaining his size and shape, he has the physical tools to win. If he is even slightly behind in detail, the more compact contenders can regain the advantage during close comparisons.
4. Martin Fitzwater: momentum and balance
Martin Fitzwater placed fifth at the 2025 Olympia and is officially qualified for 2026. His steady rise has made him one of the most interesting athletes in the lineup.
Fitzwater combines competitive confidence with a balanced physique that performs well in comparison rounds. Moving from the top five to the podium will require visible improvement, particularly when standing beside former champions and structurally larger athletes.
He is a realistic top-four candidate and a potential podium surprise if one of the leading three misses the mark.
5. Behrooz Tabani: a dangerous challenger
Behrooz Tabani is officially qualified and brings the type of dense muscularity and conditioning that can disrupt an expected top five.
His challenge is not simply arriving in excellent condition; he must present enough shape, balance and stage control to win comparisons against athletes with more Olympia momentum.
Tabani currently holds our fifth position, but William Bonac, Quinton Eriya and other confirmed competitors can make a strong case for the same range.
Mr Olympia favorites outside the top group
William Bonac
Bonac’s experience and muscle maturity make him difficult to dismiss. Even when he is not discussed as the favorite, he understands how to present a complete physique under Olympia pressure.
Quinton Eriya
Eriya has the frame and potential to become a major factor. His placing will depend on whether his conditioning and muscular completeness match his structure.
Shaun Clarida
Clarida is a former 212 Olympia champion with exceptional detail and competitive experience. In the Open lineup, he must overcome the size difference while maximizing the conditioning and presentation that built his reputation.
Tonio Burton
Burton continues to gain high-level experience and can move upward when his shape and conditioning come together.
Notable names not yet confirmed
Some popular athletes may be widely discussed even when they do not appear on the current official qualified list. Do not add a competitor to the Mr Olympia 2026 lineup merely because the athlete is famous or expected to compete.
Samson Dauda, Nick Walker and other major names should be labeled according to their current official qualification status. The roster remains open until August 30, so this section may change quickly.
What could decide the championship?
Conditioning
At this level, a small difference in water retention, separation or lower-body detail can change several placings.
Back comparisons
Rear double-biceps and rear lat-spread comparisons frequently separate leading contenders. Lunsford’s back strength is one reason challengers must be complete from every angle.
Midsection control
Size is not enough if an athlete loses abdominal control between poses. Judges evaluate the physique throughout the comparison, not only during a single photograph.
Proportion and flow
The best Open bodybuilder must combine size with balance. A dominant body part can attract attention, but disproportion can become obvious beside a more complete athlete.
Posing and stage presence
Efficient posing makes strengths easier to judge and reduces the visibility of weaknesses. Poor transitions or inconsistent control can weaken an otherwise impressive physique.
When will predictions become more reliable?
These Men’s Open predictions become stronger at three stages:
- When qualification closes on August 30
- When official athlete check-ins confirm who is present
- When prejudging reveals the first direct comparisons
The Friday Men’s Open prejudging is therefore more informative than social-media photos taken under different lighting, angles and levels of preparation.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mr Olympia 2026?
Derek Lunsford is the early favorite because he is the reigning champion. Hadi Choopan and Andrew Jacked appear to be his clearest confirmed challengers.
Is Andrew Jacked qualified?
Yes. The official list uses his given name, Chinedu Obiekea.
Is the 2026 lineup final?
No. Qualification continues through August 30, 2026.
When is the Men’s Open final?
The Mr. Olympia Men’s Open final is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
Are predictions official?
No. Predictions are editorial analysis. Only official judging and scorecards determine the result.
Final prediction
Our early order places Lunsford ahead of Choopan and Andrew Jacked, with Fitzwater and Tabani completing the projected top five. These Mr Olympia 2026 predictions remain provisional because the gap between the top three is small enough that conditioning and presentation on the actual weekend can completely change the outcome.
Update the Mr Olympia 2026 predictions after the qualification deadline and again after athlete check-ins. A final version of the Mr Olympia 2026 predictions should reflect the confirmed roster rather than expected appearances.
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